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The Ashes part deux: series preview

While I admire the honest, outspoken style that Ian Chappell has in his commentary and writing I don't find myself agreeing with his views very often. This latest piece on ESPNcricinfo is an exception though. In what is a faintly ridiculous set of back to back Ashes series (to accommodate an ODI World Cup of all things), the build-up to the second round has been laughable almost. Anyone who hasn't followed the game for a few years might be forgiven if they thought that the Australian domination from the 1990s and early 2000s has continued and that they will win in a canter again. For a team that's lost seven of their last nine matches (and it should have been eight really), that's quite a good turnaround on paper (and digitally). The reality though is that unless they show a drastic improvement (especially in terms of scoring runs) and England have a bit of a shocker, its going to be well nigh impossible for Australia to win back the urn.

Despite putting Buffoon Boof in charge, they have not selected a bad squad given the constraints they had especially with injured bowlers. James Faulkner will likely be the guy to miss out (to Mitchell Johnson) and if the batsmen can show some collective resolve, they will certainly perform better as a team than they did here in England during the northern summer. There is still a very short-termist feel to the overall side though with none of Clarke, Rogers, Bailey, Haddin, Harris, and Johnson likely to last more than a few years. Haddin in particular looked quite past it often during the first leg and I wouldn't be surprised if he's given way to Tim Paine by the end of the series. The Gabba though is a good place for the series to start for the home team (despite what happened the last time), and if they can sneak a win here with England's penchant to start series slowly, they will fancy their chances of maintaining the advantage. If not, it'll be a hard slog through the rest of the series.

England have a few headaches, particularly if Prior misses out due to his injury but they are a strong and settled side and will not be beaten easily. I find a lot of similarities between Cook's side and the (briefly world dominant) Indian side from 2008-2010. A set of four batsmen with genuine claims to being amongst the all time best their country has produced (even if Cook, Trott, Pietersen, Bell doesn't have quite the same flourish as Sehwag, Dravid, Tendulkar, Laxman), an experienced star seamer and off-break tweaker supported by a tall hit the deck bowler, and a captain often criticized for being defensive but one with the guts to stick by his guns. They even have a left-handed southern African in charge as coach (as India had Kirsten). And if the batting doesn't hit quite the same heights, the bowling makes up for it with Anderson, Swann, and Broad all better than Zaheer, Harbhajan, and Ishant man for man. Cook will however know that these players are slowly ageing and he won't want to face what Dhoni (and India) had to over the last two years. That relative lack of bench strength would be my main concern for England going into the series. If their players stay fit, they'll get their Ashes record.

I won't make specific wishes like I did before the previous joust but I will pick the players who I think will have the biggest impact. For the home side, I think Steve Smith, Peter Siddle, and Nathan Lyon will be the engine they will rely on to give them a surprising sniff at an upset win. For England, Pietersen likes a big stage and will perform as he does on them, and Broad, Swann and Joe Root will be the other stars. Series prediction: tough call but 2-1 to England.


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