2011 was a tumultuous year in the world of cricket with players being sentenced to prison, and entire teams being disqualified from competitions for the first time in my memory of following the great game. In the last three or four months however, activity picked up for most of the teams in world cricket and the focus thankfully shifted back onto the field of play and that in itself is reason to celebrate. Now that we're at the end of all international cricket for the year (and in fact have even had a couple of games in the new year), doing a 'round-the-world' trip and trying to predict where the teams will head over the next 12-18 months feels like a good way to kick off the new year. So here goes (in alphabetical order of cricketing nations) -
AUSTRALIA: As was to be expected, they have taken their recent run of depressing results (the two Ashes losses, losing to India and then surrendering the World Cup after 12 years) to heart and have begun their fightback though not without continued setbacks. New captains in all formats (with Clarke making the wise decision to quit T20) and the rare (for Australia) retention of a captain as a batsman after his resignation as captain shows that they are willing to change tradition to get back glory. Impressive new talent (or in some cases known old talent re-blossoming) has come forth too and in Clarke, Watson, Marsh, Siddle, Pattinson, Cummins, Warner and Lyon they seem to have the nucleus of a strong side for the future.
Prediction for next 12 months: Test match results will still be the main challenge though they will keep improving steadily and climbing back up the rankings. Limited overs formats will see them stay strong at the top with an inaugural World T20 title in 2012.
Big hope(s) for the future: Hard to look beyond James Pattinson who promises to be the next leader of their attack. Hopefully he won't go the Mitchell Johnson way.
Risk management: Hussey, Ponting, Haddin, and Harris will all likely exit stage left in the next 12 months and though they seem to have those bases covered to a degree, the middle order ballast that Hussey is will be hard to replace instantaneously. Callum Ferguson would seem to fit the bill perfectly but for some reason, the selectors haven't shown the faith in his abilities.
BANGLADESH: Its been a little over 10 years since Bangladesh got admitted to the elite world of Test cricket and rather sadly, the passage of that time doesn't really seem to have made a jot of difference to their ability to compete in the longest format. Their average performance in ODIs and T20s has improved slowly, even though they continue to underachieve even in those formats, but radical improvement still seems like a long road ahead. In common with the modern trends, its in batting application that they seem to struggle the most and until that changes all the talent at their disposal will not come to fruition.
Prediction for next 12 months: Given that the ICC will not show the guts to do the right thing and take away Test status from them, another year of heavy defeats beckons. Limited overs will offer some relief but continued defeats take a toll on young players mentally and that's the biggest tragedy with Bangladesh cricket.
Big hope(s) for the future: Nasir Hossain has made a spirited start to his career and though not quite in the rising star category yet, he shows promise.
Risk management: Tamim Iqbal continues to frustrate and seems to be going the Ashraful way which is not a great sign for the Tigers. Speaking of Ashraful, the Bangladesh selectors need to be merciful and drop him permanently instead of the now-he's-in-now-not treatment they have meted out recently.
ENGLAND: They have continued to rise and rise and fittingly are the #1 Test match side by a distance now. What has set them apart is the depth in fast bowling stocks (how India and Sri Lanka must envy them) and the consistency of their top batters (unlike Australia and South Africa). An in what is almost a neat inverse of their arch-rivals, they struggle for consistency in the limited overs-formats though they are still rated at the top of the international T20 tree. The first half of 2012 will bring a searching examination in alien conditions and will truly determine whether this team can put a stamp of greatness on itself.
Prediction for next 12 months: They will struggle against Pakistan but nail a series win in Sri Lanka and so keep the debate ongoing as to whether they are a great team or not. The battle with the Proteas in the English summer should give them a chance to at least seal the stamp on their #1 rating. They will lose their World T20 crown (as indicated earlier).
Big hope(s) for the future: Amongst bowlers who have taken 50 wickets or more, Steven Finn is behind only Shane Bond and Dale Steyn (counting post-war bowlers only) and ahead of the legendary Sydney Barnes and yet he doesn't find a place in the first XI. 2012 will be the year when England will hope he truly comes to the fore.
Risk management: Strauss will not last much longer and Pietersen's appetite seems to be waning too so Test pedigree batting back-up will be the main worry for Andy Flower especially given the trouble that Australia have been having as they rebuild their batting line-up and India are likely to when Dravid and Tendulkar retire.
INDIA: 2011 was a strange year for India with the tremendous high of the World Cup victory followed soon after by the abysmal low of their worst drubbing in recent history over the English summer. Limited overs form has been steady but the Test match calibre of the team (particularly away) is under severe scrutiny. Whether Dhoni can come through this acid Test as captain and regaining the ability to post consistently large totals against top teams in Tests is the big test that lies ahead for this team (but more on that separately).
Prediction for next 12 months: Test match inconsistency will continue but the team will finally win in Sri Lanka for only the second time and maintain their strong record at home. World T20 fortunes will also finally improve with a first semi-final showing.
Big hope(s) for the future: Touted by many as the most talented young batsman in the world alongside Umar Akmal, 2012 will be the year in which India will hope Rohit Sharma can demonstrate why and become a permanent feature across formats.
Risk management: No prizes for guessing this one. The extent to which the Test team is still reliant on three men above 37 is shocking and the impending retirement of Tendulkar, Dravid, and Laxman with no clear succession plan in place is likely to cause the biggest headaches for the selectors.
NEW ZEALAND: Always a team that punches above its weight, New Zealand continued that legacy in 2011 with their quarter-final win over the Springboks in the World Cup and their amazing win in Hobart at the end of the year. The rest of the year wasn't as good but the current line-up has lots of promise and if they can add a modicum of consistency to their cricket, they can upset many applecarts. They will also be disappointed by their current ODI ranking and will want to rectify that asap.
Prediction for next 12 months: They will hold South Africa to a leveled series at home and beat the Windies away though they will continue their historical struggles in the sub-continent. T20 glory awaits with a first time final appearance though they will lose to their neighbours.
Big hope(s) for the future: Kane Williamson and Doug Bracewell are young talents that the Kiwis will want to have as their batting and bowling pivots.
Risk management: Daniel Vettori has already retired from the shorter formats and if he chooses to do the same in Test matches, New Zealand will need to not only plug the hole in their attack of a world class spinner but also determine where the consistent level of runs he contributes will come from.
PAKISTAN: As befits the most volatile team in world cricket, Pakistan plumbed the depths of seeing their best bowlers and former captain sent to prison but roared back in the second half of the year to emerge with the best win-loss record in Tests in 2011 (albeit without any matches against top opposition). Moreover, they used only 17 players doing this and a similar number in the shorter formats where too they were quite consistent. 2012 will pose greater challenges but the primer they have had this year will likely hold them in good stead.
Prediction for next 12 months: England will be held to a drawn series and then they have the opportunity to build on their successes by beating Sri Lanka away and Australia at "home". Probably the best T20 side in the world, they will once again be pipped to a spot in the final by the Aussies.
Big hope(s) for the future: Junaid Khan has emerged as the new left arm wonder and if he can prove even half as lethal as Mohammed Amir, Pakistan will feel that they have limited the damage from the sad loss of a great talent.
Risk management: Misbah-ul-Haq has been the rock around which the new found success of the team has been built but he is close to the wrong side of 40 and a succession plan will be something the selectors will want to nail down soon. No obvious candidates around but the captaincy might be just what's needed for Umar Gul to become a consistent leader of the attack.
SOUTH AFRICA: So near and yet so far has now almost become the standard script for the Springboks. Blessed with some of the most talented players in the world, they somehow always manage to botch things up just when they are within grasp. They are unquestionably amongst the top three teams in all formats (and are arguably the only team that can lay claim to that) but no one would bet money on them being the consistent top dog in any of the formats. Can they crack the mental side of things and shed the dreaded "C" tag?
Prediction for next 12 months: They will continue to be in the top three in all formats but nailing down champion pedigree will continue to be hard especially in Test match cricket where they will lose a hard fought series in England. AB deVilliers will become a champion leader in ODIs though the T20 World Championship will bring disappointment again.
Big hope(s) for the future: Vernon Philander has come to the party late but if he can maintain even 75% of his initial success rate, Graeme Smith and Gary Kirsten will be very pleased.
Risk management: Mark Boucher will struggle to make most other international sides today and if there is one obvious weakness in this team (from a personnel standpoint) finding a quality replacement wicket-keeper is it.
SRI LANKA: Despite a World Cup final appearance and a first Test victory in South Africa, things have been largely downhill for the Lankans in 2011. Dilshan has been insipid as a skipper and even more inconsistent as a batsman, Jayawardene appears to have lost his touch, and their bowling (with the exception of Malinga) is toothless most of the time. The ray of hope probably is that things can only get better but that's small consolation for fans during this slump.
Prediction for next 12 months: Test match success will continue to be sparse and losses will mount up even at home, with defeats to England and India. The shorter forms will provide some succour but the slide will not arrest over the next year.
Big hope(s) for the future: Hard to look beyond Dinesh Chandimal and if he can turn out to be even half as good as Kumar Sangakkara, Sri Lanka will have found a new class act.
Risk management: Like India, Sri Lanka have problems all around when it comes to Test match cricket but none more important than finding adequate replacements for the middle order steel that Sangakkara and Jayawardene have been for years.
WEST INDIES: Darren Sammy has striven manfully and there have been rare moments of success but largely, the question of when West Indies will recover even a fraction of their former aura has almost become a question of if. Like South Africa, it seems less of an ability question and more of a mindset one. The new breed of players like Barath, Bravo, Rampaul, Roach, Bishoo etc certainly have the skills but do they have the grit to engineer a turnaround?
Prediction for next 12 months: Most of their Test cricket in the next 12 months is at home giving them a chance of pulling off a few big upsets but I don't expect too many from them. Batting frailties and inconsistent bowling will continue to plague them and they will plunge to the bottom of the rankings (ahead of only Bangladesh and Zimbabwe) in all forms.
Big hope(s) for the future: West Indies will hope that Darren Bravo will not go the way of his elder brother Dwayne and will continue to draw the comparisons to Lara that his early performances have done.
Risk management: How long can Sammy continue to command a place on performance? The fact that he affects the balance of the side and keeps out potentially better all round prospects like Dwayne Bravo and Andre Russell will be the main poser for the selectors. Arguably, his leadership allied with his performance merits a place in a struggling team but it is difficult to captain a struggling side if you cannot lead by example.
ZIMBABWE: They are currently too early into their re-emergence on the world scene and so I will only wait and watch for now. Predictions will have to wait for 2013 :-)
AUSTRALIA: As was to be expected, they have taken their recent run of depressing results (the two Ashes losses, losing to India and then surrendering the World Cup after 12 years) to heart and have begun their fightback though not without continued setbacks. New captains in all formats (with Clarke making the wise decision to quit T20) and the rare (for Australia) retention of a captain as a batsman after his resignation as captain shows that they are willing to change tradition to get back glory. Impressive new talent (or in some cases known old talent re-blossoming) has come forth too and in Clarke, Watson, Marsh, Siddle, Pattinson, Cummins, Warner and Lyon they seem to have the nucleus of a strong side for the future.
Prediction for next 12 months: Test match results will still be the main challenge though they will keep improving steadily and climbing back up the rankings. Limited overs formats will see them stay strong at the top with an inaugural World T20 title in 2012.
Big hope(s) for the future: Hard to look beyond James Pattinson who promises to be the next leader of their attack. Hopefully he won't go the Mitchell Johnson way.
Risk management: Hussey, Ponting, Haddin, and Harris will all likely exit stage left in the next 12 months and though they seem to have those bases covered to a degree, the middle order ballast that Hussey is will be hard to replace instantaneously. Callum Ferguson would seem to fit the bill perfectly but for some reason, the selectors haven't shown the faith in his abilities.
BANGLADESH: Its been a little over 10 years since Bangladesh got admitted to the elite world of Test cricket and rather sadly, the passage of that time doesn't really seem to have made a jot of difference to their ability to compete in the longest format. Their average performance in ODIs and T20s has improved slowly, even though they continue to underachieve even in those formats, but radical improvement still seems like a long road ahead. In common with the modern trends, its in batting application that they seem to struggle the most and until that changes all the talent at their disposal will not come to fruition.
Prediction for next 12 months: Given that the ICC will not show the guts to do the right thing and take away Test status from them, another year of heavy defeats beckons. Limited overs will offer some relief but continued defeats take a toll on young players mentally and that's the biggest tragedy with Bangladesh cricket.
Big hope(s) for the future: Nasir Hossain has made a spirited start to his career and though not quite in the rising star category yet, he shows promise.
Risk management: Tamim Iqbal continues to frustrate and seems to be going the Ashraful way which is not a great sign for the Tigers. Speaking of Ashraful, the Bangladesh selectors need to be merciful and drop him permanently instead of the now-he's-in-now-not treatment they have meted out recently.
ENGLAND: They have continued to rise and rise and fittingly are the #1 Test match side by a distance now. What has set them apart is the depth in fast bowling stocks (how India and Sri Lanka must envy them) and the consistency of their top batters (unlike Australia and South Africa). An in what is almost a neat inverse of their arch-rivals, they struggle for consistency in the limited overs-formats though they are still rated at the top of the international T20 tree. The first half of 2012 will bring a searching examination in alien conditions and will truly determine whether this team can put a stamp of greatness on itself.
Prediction for next 12 months: They will struggle against Pakistan but nail a series win in Sri Lanka and so keep the debate ongoing as to whether they are a great team or not. The battle with the Proteas in the English summer should give them a chance to at least seal the stamp on their #1 rating. They will lose their World T20 crown (as indicated earlier).
Big hope(s) for the future: Amongst bowlers who have taken 50 wickets or more, Steven Finn is behind only Shane Bond and Dale Steyn (counting post-war bowlers only) and ahead of the legendary Sydney Barnes and yet he doesn't find a place in the first XI. 2012 will be the year when England will hope he truly comes to the fore.
Risk management: Strauss will not last much longer and Pietersen's appetite seems to be waning too so Test pedigree batting back-up will be the main worry for Andy Flower especially given the trouble that Australia have been having as they rebuild their batting line-up and India are likely to when Dravid and Tendulkar retire.
INDIA: 2011 was a strange year for India with the tremendous high of the World Cup victory followed soon after by the abysmal low of their worst drubbing in recent history over the English summer. Limited overs form has been steady but the Test match calibre of the team (particularly away) is under severe scrutiny. Whether Dhoni can come through this acid Test as captain and regaining the ability to post consistently large totals against top teams in Tests is the big test that lies ahead for this team (but more on that separately).
Prediction for next 12 months: Test match inconsistency will continue but the team will finally win in Sri Lanka for only the second time and maintain their strong record at home. World T20 fortunes will also finally improve with a first semi-final showing.
Big hope(s) for the future: Touted by many as the most talented young batsman in the world alongside Umar Akmal, 2012 will be the year in which India will hope Rohit Sharma can demonstrate why and become a permanent feature across formats.
Risk management: No prizes for guessing this one. The extent to which the Test team is still reliant on three men above 37 is shocking and the impending retirement of Tendulkar, Dravid, and Laxman with no clear succession plan in place is likely to cause the biggest headaches for the selectors.
NEW ZEALAND: Always a team that punches above its weight, New Zealand continued that legacy in 2011 with their quarter-final win over the Springboks in the World Cup and their amazing win in Hobart at the end of the year. The rest of the year wasn't as good but the current line-up has lots of promise and if they can add a modicum of consistency to their cricket, they can upset many applecarts. They will also be disappointed by their current ODI ranking and will want to rectify that asap.
Prediction for next 12 months: They will hold South Africa to a leveled series at home and beat the Windies away though they will continue their historical struggles in the sub-continent. T20 glory awaits with a first time final appearance though they will lose to their neighbours.
Big hope(s) for the future: Kane Williamson and Doug Bracewell are young talents that the Kiwis will want to have as their batting and bowling pivots.
Risk management: Daniel Vettori has already retired from the shorter formats and if he chooses to do the same in Test matches, New Zealand will need to not only plug the hole in their attack of a world class spinner but also determine where the consistent level of runs he contributes will come from.
PAKISTAN: As befits the most volatile team in world cricket, Pakistan plumbed the depths of seeing their best bowlers and former captain sent to prison but roared back in the second half of the year to emerge with the best win-loss record in Tests in 2011 (albeit without any matches against top opposition). Moreover, they used only 17 players doing this and a similar number in the shorter formats where too they were quite consistent. 2012 will pose greater challenges but the primer they have had this year will likely hold them in good stead.
Prediction for next 12 months: England will be held to a drawn series and then they have the opportunity to build on their successes by beating Sri Lanka away and Australia at "home". Probably the best T20 side in the world, they will once again be pipped to a spot in the final by the Aussies.
Big hope(s) for the future: Junaid Khan has emerged as the new left arm wonder and if he can prove even half as lethal as Mohammed Amir, Pakistan will feel that they have limited the damage from the sad loss of a great talent.
Risk management: Misbah-ul-Haq has been the rock around which the new found success of the team has been built but he is close to the wrong side of 40 and a succession plan will be something the selectors will want to nail down soon. No obvious candidates around but the captaincy might be just what's needed for Umar Gul to become a consistent leader of the attack.
SOUTH AFRICA: So near and yet so far has now almost become the standard script for the Springboks. Blessed with some of the most talented players in the world, they somehow always manage to botch things up just when they are within grasp. They are unquestionably amongst the top three teams in all formats (and are arguably the only team that can lay claim to that) but no one would bet money on them being the consistent top dog in any of the formats. Can they crack the mental side of things and shed the dreaded "C" tag?
Prediction for next 12 months: They will continue to be in the top three in all formats but nailing down champion pedigree will continue to be hard especially in Test match cricket where they will lose a hard fought series in England. AB deVilliers will become a champion leader in ODIs though the T20 World Championship will bring disappointment again.
Big hope(s) for the future: Vernon Philander has come to the party late but if he can maintain even 75% of his initial success rate, Graeme Smith and Gary Kirsten will be very pleased.
Risk management: Mark Boucher will struggle to make most other international sides today and if there is one obvious weakness in this team (from a personnel standpoint) finding a quality replacement wicket-keeper is it.
SRI LANKA: Despite a World Cup final appearance and a first Test victory in South Africa, things have been largely downhill for the Lankans in 2011. Dilshan has been insipid as a skipper and even more inconsistent as a batsman, Jayawardene appears to have lost his touch, and their bowling (with the exception of Malinga) is toothless most of the time. The ray of hope probably is that things can only get better but that's small consolation for fans during this slump.
Prediction for next 12 months: Test match success will continue to be sparse and losses will mount up even at home, with defeats to England and India. The shorter forms will provide some succour but the slide will not arrest over the next year.
Big hope(s) for the future: Hard to look beyond Dinesh Chandimal and if he can turn out to be even half as good as Kumar Sangakkara, Sri Lanka will have found a new class act.
Risk management: Like India, Sri Lanka have problems all around when it comes to Test match cricket but none more important than finding adequate replacements for the middle order steel that Sangakkara and Jayawardene have been for years.
WEST INDIES: Darren Sammy has striven manfully and there have been rare moments of success but largely, the question of when West Indies will recover even a fraction of their former aura has almost become a question of if. Like South Africa, it seems less of an ability question and more of a mindset one. The new breed of players like Barath, Bravo, Rampaul, Roach, Bishoo etc certainly have the skills but do they have the grit to engineer a turnaround?
Prediction for next 12 months: Most of their Test cricket in the next 12 months is at home giving them a chance of pulling off a few big upsets but I don't expect too many from them. Batting frailties and inconsistent bowling will continue to plague them and they will plunge to the bottom of the rankings (ahead of only Bangladesh and Zimbabwe) in all forms.
Big hope(s) for the future: West Indies will hope that Darren Bravo will not go the way of his elder brother Dwayne and will continue to draw the comparisons to Lara that his early performances have done.
Risk management: How long can Sammy continue to command a place on performance? The fact that he affects the balance of the side and keeps out potentially better all round prospects like Dwayne Bravo and Andre Russell will be the main poser for the selectors. Arguably, his leadership allied with his performance merits a place in a struggling team but it is difficult to captain a struggling side if you cannot lead by example.
ZIMBABWE: They are currently too early into their re-emergence on the world scene and so I will only wait and watch for now. Predictions will have to wait for 2013 :-)
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