One day cricket is in trouble. The advent of T20 and the popularity of the leagues that have spawned everywhere was supposed to endanger Test cricket but its had as much of an effect (if not a greater one) on its closer limited overs cousin. 2012 marked the first time since 1995 (when there were still 6 match Test series and 55 overs a side ODIs played in England) that there were fewer than 100 ODIs played in a full calendar year. And with the ICC deciding to do away with the Champions Trophy after this year's edition, the format is going to lose what was arguably its best and snappiest tournament. The frequent tinkering with the rules isn't helping the format much either and it'll be interesting to see what happens if the 2015 World Cup is not a popular event (especially given large parts of it will be held in Australia who might be recovering from a double Ashes loss).
That sub-text around the format is one of two things that drive my interest in the tournament that kicks off tomorrow. The other is the fact that there is no clear favourite by any means for the event and each team has its own set of demons to wrestle with and its own sub-text. So I'm going to quickly jot down my brief notes on each team (in alphabetical order) and predictions as to how they will fare. Given my past track record, I expect to be mostly wrong but since this is for fun and I'm no Meiyappan, I can afford to stick my neck out :-)
Australia: Clarke's back and their bowling will determine how far they go
MVP: Shane Watson but expect teams to sledge him a fair bit given recent events
Prediction: They'll make it to the semis but no further and lose the last "title" they hold
England: Home conditions should help but they are rather inflexible as a team and sorely miss Pietersen
MVP: James Anderson but lack of bowling support might mean too much of a burden on him
Prediction: Won't make the semis and will ring the changes before 2015
India: Most inexperienced team they have fielded in years and the IPL fixing episode is a distraction
MVP: MS Dhoni already has a big burden to shoulder but the low expectations might help
Prediction: Will fight gamely but in the tougher group of the two so will exit before semis
New Zealand: Ranked the lowest amongst the teams here but solid big tournament temperament
MVP: Hard to pick one given they're all about team effort but Martin Guptill maybe given recent form?
Prediction: Losing semi-finalist alongside their trans-Tasmanian rivals
Pakistan: Probably the most balanced bowling line-up though their batting can be suspect
MVP: Mohammad Hafeez is tipped to be their next skipper and this is his chance to show why
Prediction: They will pick up the one ICC title that has eluded them so far
South Africa: Similar to India in that they are inexperienced and therefore not as much expected
MVP: Again similar to India, their wicket-keeper captain and best bat but will deVilliers back hold?
Prediction: No dream farewell for Kirsten as they'll get knocked out early
Sri Lanka: Team in rebuild phase though many of the experienced (but declining) hands are still there
MVP: Dinesh Chandimal now leads the T20 team and is their new batting hope
Prediction: Will struggle against teams with superior seam bowling and bow out before the last four
West Indies: Current T20 champions and possibly have the most match-turning players in limited overs
MVP: Time for Darren Bravo to get out of the shadow of his half brother (and now skipper)
Prediction: Will make the finals for the second time in a Champions Trophy tourney in England
So my semi-final line-up will be West Indies vs New Zealand and Pakistan vs Australia with Pakistan to defeat the West Indies in the final. Gentlemen, play!
That sub-text around the format is one of two things that drive my interest in the tournament that kicks off tomorrow. The other is the fact that there is no clear favourite by any means for the event and each team has its own set of demons to wrestle with and its own sub-text. So I'm going to quickly jot down my brief notes on each team (in alphabetical order) and predictions as to how they will fare. Given my past track record, I expect to be mostly wrong but since this is for fun and I'm no Meiyappan, I can afford to stick my neck out :-)
Australia: Clarke's back and their bowling will determine how far they go
MVP: Shane Watson but expect teams to sledge him a fair bit given recent events
Prediction: They'll make it to the semis but no further and lose the last "title" they hold
England: Home conditions should help but they are rather inflexible as a team and sorely miss Pietersen
MVP: James Anderson but lack of bowling support might mean too much of a burden on him
Prediction: Won't make the semis and will ring the changes before 2015
India: Most inexperienced team they have fielded in years and the IPL fixing episode is a distraction
MVP: MS Dhoni already has a big burden to shoulder but the low expectations might help
Prediction: Will fight gamely but in the tougher group of the two so will exit before semis
New Zealand: Ranked the lowest amongst the teams here but solid big tournament temperament
MVP: Hard to pick one given they're all about team effort but Martin Guptill maybe given recent form?
Prediction: Losing semi-finalist alongside their trans-Tasmanian rivals
Pakistan: Probably the most balanced bowling line-up though their batting can be suspect
MVP: Mohammad Hafeez is tipped to be their next skipper and this is his chance to show why
Prediction: They will pick up the one ICC title that has eluded them so far
South Africa: Similar to India in that they are inexperienced and therefore not as much expected
MVP: Again similar to India, their wicket-keeper captain and best bat but will deVilliers back hold?
Prediction: No dream farewell for Kirsten as they'll get knocked out early
Sri Lanka: Team in rebuild phase though many of the experienced (but declining) hands are still there
MVP: Dinesh Chandimal now leads the T20 team and is their new batting hope
Prediction: Will struggle against teams with superior seam bowling and bow out before the last four
West Indies: Current T20 champions and possibly have the most match-turning players in limited overs
MVP: Time for Darren Bravo to get out of the shadow of his half brother (and now skipper)
Prediction: Will make the finals for the second time in a Champions Trophy tourney in England
So my semi-final line-up will be West Indies vs New Zealand and Pakistan vs Australia with Pakistan to defeat the West Indies in the final. Gentlemen, play!
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