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Do the rankings really reflect performance?

There's been a lot of talk recently about the ICC Test rankings and the seismic shift with Australia dropping to No. 4 and Sri Lanka moving up to No. 2. However a closer look at the relative performances of the top 5 teams since 2007 (the last two years) leads to lots of questions.

South Africa can be indisputably said to be No. 1. They have won nearly 64% (50% excluding Bangladesh) of their matches and importantly won matches away in almost every country. Their only weakness has been a slight inability to battle to draw matches where they fall behind. Sri Lanka at No.2 are certainly ranked higher than their performance deserves. 54% of matches won looks good but when you take out Bangladesh, it falls to less than 32% which is not great by any standards. Moreover only one of the non-Bangla victories have come away from home. To be fair, they have lacked opportunity and its high time they got more three match series as well as the chance to play the top teams regularly. At No. 3, India have a quite poor overall win ratio of less than 36% (32% excluding Bangladesh) but they have recorded away victories in Eng, Aus, SL, and NZ which helps as does the fact that they have a high draw ratio. Australia at No. 4 have won 48% of their Tests and won matches away in the WI, SA, and Eng and their current ranking is harsh in my opinion. England have (as can be expected) played the most matches and have a win ratio of 34% but apart from NZ have not managed to win away anywhere so their ranking is probably fair.

Overall I think SA are probably #1 and Australia #2 with Sri Lanka, India and England being fairly even as the third best teams in the world. With so little to choose between so many teams, it certainly makes for an exciting time to be a cricket fan.

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