If I had to sum Mahendra Singh Dhoni up in one word it would be equanimous. When you listen to him after a press conference its sometimes hard to tell what the result of the game was, let alone his own individual performance. Its this equanimity too that helps him play the most incredible nerveless innings (like the one described here by Siddhartha Vaidyanathan) and handle the various off-field shenanigans that the world of Indian cricket keeps throwing up. So it wasn't a real surprise to hear him be pretty sang-froid about India's relatively inexperienced squad for the tour of South Africa. Behind the calm though is a man keenly aware (though probably not too concerned) that until he reaps overseas Test success, his detractors will not acknowledge his abilities as captain despite his record being the best by far of any Indian captain. India's next year and a bit which has them playing 13 Tests across South Africa, New Zealand, England, and Australia gives him that opportunity not to mention a chance to improve his own batting record outside the subcontinent.
Its also an opportunity for an incredibly young Indian team to start to forge a new Test match identity. The XI likely to take the field on December 18 at the Wanderers has an average age of 27.5 (and if Umesh Yadav is picked ahead of Zaheer Khan that would drop further to 26.7). In comparison, the South African first choice line-up has an average age that's four years more. Even more tellingly, the total Test experience of the probable XI for India adds up to less than the combined caps for Kallis and Smith alone. Inevitably, this will mean that there will be some batting collapses and bowling meltdowns as these tyros will learn from their overseas experiences. If however, the batsmen can all learn as quickly as Kohli did on the tour of Australia in 2011/12, India won't be too badly off. If not, Steyn, Philander and co will make mincemeat of them as they have done with most visiting teams in recent times. The bowlers too will be up against it, primarily due to a lack of experience in these conditions (especially if Zaheer is not back to somewhere near his best). Despite all that can go wrong though, it will be nice to see India being bold and playing five bowlers with Dhoni at #6. Early indications are that Fletcher and he might do so but time will tell. Promoting Jadeja up the order in the ODIs might not be a bad way to suss out such an option, though given his focus on winning games, I'd be surprised if that happens. Instead, the undeserving Raina and Yuvraj will continue to form the middle order despite the fact that they will be liabilities in Australia come the 2015 World Cup.
South Africa on the other hand are looking for a fresh start in ODIs rather than in the longer format. Even an incredibly unlikely 0-2 loss in the Test series won't dethrone them from the #1 spot and given how stable and well oiled their line-up is, anything other than a series win will be unsatisfactory in the extreme. In limited overs though, de Villiers hasn't had the best of starts to his tenure as captain with the team winning barely more than half their games overall and only that many at home as well. Unlike India who have a settled side in this format, they've chopped and changed batting combinations so much that no one knows their role anymore. And with Kallis back in the side again, things are set to change once more. Personally, I think South Africa are better off gently setting the likes of Kallis, Smith, and Philander aside from their ODI plans and betting on players like Miller, du Plessis, and Morris instead but clearly that's not what de Villiers and Domingo think at the moment.
All in all, it should be a fascinating (if slightly short) set of contests. My predictions: India to win the ODIs 2-1 and South Africa to win the Tests 1-0. Although the other way round is equally possible (if less likely).
Its also an opportunity for an incredibly young Indian team to start to forge a new Test match identity. The XI likely to take the field on December 18 at the Wanderers has an average age of 27.5 (and if Umesh Yadav is picked ahead of Zaheer Khan that would drop further to 26.7). In comparison, the South African first choice line-up has an average age that's four years more. Even more tellingly, the total Test experience of the probable XI for India adds up to less than the combined caps for Kallis and Smith alone. Inevitably, this will mean that there will be some batting collapses and bowling meltdowns as these tyros will learn from their overseas experiences. If however, the batsmen can all learn as quickly as Kohli did on the tour of Australia in 2011/12, India won't be too badly off. If not, Steyn, Philander and co will make mincemeat of them as they have done with most visiting teams in recent times. The bowlers too will be up against it, primarily due to a lack of experience in these conditions (especially if Zaheer is not back to somewhere near his best). Despite all that can go wrong though, it will be nice to see India being bold and playing five bowlers with Dhoni at #6. Early indications are that Fletcher and he might do so but time will tell. Promoting Jadeja up the order in the ODIs might not be a bad way to suss out such an option, though given his focus on winning games, I'd be surprised if that happens. Instead, the undeserving Raina and Yuvraj will continue to form the middle order despite the fact that they will be liabilities in Australia come the 2015 World Cup.
South Africa on the other hand are looking for a fresh start in ODIs rather than in the longer format. Even an incredibly unlikely 0-2 loss in the Test series won't dethrone them from the #1 spot and given how stable and well oiled their line-up is, anything other than a series win will be unsatisfactory in the extreme. In limited overs though, de Villiers hasn't had the best of starts to his tenure as captain with the team winning barely more than half their games overall and only that many at home as well. Unlike India who have a settled side in this format, they've chopped and changed batting combinations so much that no one knows their role anymore. And with Kallis back in the side again, things are set to change once more. Personally, I think South Africa are better off gently setting the likes of Kallis, Smith, and Philander aside from their ODI plans and betting on players like Miller, du Plessis, and Morris instead but clearly that's not what de Villiers and Domingo think at the moment.
All in all, it should be a fascinating (if slightly short) set of contests. My predictions: India to win the ODIs 2-1 and South Africa to win the Tests 1-0. Although the other way round is equally possible (if less likely).
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