Now that Mahendra Singh Dhoni has essentially announced his decision to stay on as skipper of the side till at least the 2015 World Cup, every ODI series India plays hereon is a stage for defining the plans and alternatives for that tournament. And none of them will be more critical than the current series against New Zealand given its the closest the team will get to play in conditions resembling that in the actual World Cup. A lot gets written about India's poor record in Test cricket away from home even though its improved hugely since the turn of the millennium. Their one-day record away from home is not outstanding either with a win-loss ratio well below 1 (though only Australia and South Africa are better). What is more concerning is the fact that Australia and New Zealand are two of the three worst venues for the team thereby making the title defence even more challenging.
Their recent record and especially the win in the Champions Trophy certainly gives cause for hope that they have the nucleus of a squad that can win a long tournament again. In my book, there are at least four certain starters in the XI (Dhoni, Kohli, Jadeja, and Shami) with three others being near certainties unless their form really deserts them in the next ten months or so (Dhawan, Rohit Sharma, Bhuvneshwar Kumar). Its the last two batting and bowling places that are the widest open. The batting first. Its hard to see Yuvraj making a comeback into the side given his age and form and in my view its also time to jettison Raina for good despite Dhoni and Fletcher's fondness for keeping him in the side. I'd like to see the two "ARs" ie Rahane and Rayudu being given an extended run at 4 and 5 and if they fail, its not hard to bring experienced players like Yuvraj (or Dinesh Karthik) and Raina back for those slots. But (to paraphrase Beckett) its about time India failed better with their middle order batting. Its the same with the bowling. Ishant Sharma is the favourite fan whipping boy and with good reason given that amongst the 40 bowlers who've played as many games as him since his debut in 2007 he has the worst economy rate. Even the likes of Chigumbura, Yuvraj, Mahmudullah, Kevin O'Brien, and Collingwood (ie professional pie-chuckers) have done better than him. And while its true that he also has the best strike rate amongst all the Indian bowlers in that list, there's no reason that the likes of Varun Aaron and Ishwar Pandey shouldn't be given the chance to show that they can do better. If not, Ishant has enough experience that turning back to him shouldn't be a problem. The same holds for Ashwin who's through his short career looked quite ineffective outside India and currently has an ODI average of 50+ outside of India and picks up less than a wicket a game. On the bouncier tracks (in Australia especially), Amit Mishra's leg spin could be a far more potent weapon especially with the bigger grounds and new fielding restrictions. Mishra is also as good a bat (at least for ODIs) and a better fielder. Dhoni though clearly believes in giving players lots of rope so I wouldn't be surprised at all if Raina, Ishant, and Ashwin get a few more chances at least in this series.
The Kiwis are also in a similar situation with the bulk of their first choice XI in place now. Their top 7 are arguably as power packed a line-up as any (especially in the Antipodes) with 6 of them easily capable of scoring 100s at better than a run a ball against any attack. And in McClenaghan, Southee, Mills, Boult, and Nathan McCullum they have a varied and experienced attack too. The only areas of concern for Mike Hesson would be in the back-ups, especially batting and spin bowling. I wouldn't be too worried at this stage though, especially if they can put it past India in the next few games and win the series handily which they should. Given my past record at predictions though, I'm not sticking my neck out on this one.
Their recent record and especially the win in the Champions Trophy certainly gives cause for hope that they have the nucleus of a squad that can win a long tournament again. In my book, there are at least four certain starters in the XI (Dhoni, Kohli, Jadeja, and Shami) with three others being near certainties unless their form really deserts them in the next ten months or so (Dhawan, Rohit Sharma, Bhuvneshwar Kumar). Its the last two batting and bowling places that are the widest open. The batting first. Its hard to see Yuvraj making a comeback into the side given his age and form and in my view its also time to jettison Raina for good despite Dhoni and Fletcher's fondness for keeping him in the side. I'd like to see the two "ARs" ie Rahane and Rayudu being given an extended run at 4 and 5 and if they fail, its not hard to bring experienced players like Yuvraj (or Dinesh Karthik) and Raina back for those slots. But (to paraphrase Beckett) its about time India failed better with their middle order batting. Its the same with the bowling. Ishant Sharma is the favourite fan whipping boy and with good reason given that amongst the 40 bowlers who've played as many games as him since his debut in 2007 he has the worst economy rate. Even the likes of Chigumbura, Yuvraj, Mahmudullah, Kevin O'Brien, and Collingwood (ie professional pie-chuckers) have done better than him. And while its true that he also has the best strike rate amongst all the Indian bowlers in that list, there's no reason that the likes of Varun Aaron and Ishwar Pandey shouldn't be given the chance to show that they can do better. If not, Ishant has enough experience that turning back to him shouldn't be a problem. The same holds for Ashwin who's through his short career looked quite ineffective outside India and currently has an ODI average of 50+ outside of India and picks up less than a wicket a game. On the bouncier tracks (in Australia especially), Amit Mishra's leg spin could be a far more potent weapon especially with the bigger grounds and new fielding restrictions. Mishra is also as good a bat (at least for ODIs) and a better fielder. Dhoni though clearly believes in giving players lots of rope so I wouldn't be surprised at all if Raina, Ishant, and Ashwin get a few more chances at least in this series.
The Kiwis are also in a similar situation with the bulk of their first choice XI in place now. Their top 7 are arguably as power packed a line-up as any (especially in the Antipodes) with 6 of them easily capable of scoring 100s at better than a run a ball against any attack. And in McClenaghan, Southee, Mills, Boult, and Nathan McCullum they have a varied and experienced attack too. The only areas of concern for Mike Hesson would be in the back-ups, especially batting and spin bowling. I wouldn't be too worried at this stage though, especially if they can put it past India in the next few games and win the series handily which they should. Given my past record at predictions though, I'm not sticking my neck out on this one.
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