The only breed more inconsistent than the Indian seamers are the Indian fans. If you went by the headlines, fan comments in social media, and interactions with followers of the Indian cricket team, India constantly bounce back and forth between being the best team in the world and worse than Bangladesh/Zimbabwe. There is no middle ground. Reactions over the last three years would bear testament to this:
April 2011: India win the World Cup after a good tour of South Africa. All hail the best team in the world.
January 2012: Successive 0-4 batterings against England and Australia. India are the pits and Dhoni and all the senior players should be sacked (Dravid and Laxman retire)
June 2013: India win the Champions Trophy after wiping out Australia 4-0. Best team in the world again.
February 2014: Away losses mount again after defeats to South Africa and New Zealand. Back to being the pits (sack Dhoni etc)
Passion is a great quality but when not tempered with patience (as is the case with most Indian fans), it begins to grow weary soon. This latest round of hand-wringing after the ODI series against New Zealand has left me particularly peeved. Granted the team didn't play as well as they might have and were lucky not to have lost 0-5. Granted that New Zealand were ranked #8 and had even lost to Bangladesh earlier in the year. And granted that Dhoni can sometimes be a very stubborn and defensive captain. All of that doesn't diminish the fact that this is a really young and inexperienced side that is learning all the time and these defeats will teach them lessons that will make them better. Dhoni and Ishant Sharma were the only two in this side to have played in NZ prior to this, and come the Test series, Zaheer Khan will join them as the third. Of the 16 players in the ODI squad, nine have played fewer than 25 games outside India and seven have played 15 or fewer. The 14 players in the Test squad (apart from Dhoni, Zaheer, and Ishant) have played a grand total of 40 Test matches outside India (ie less than 3 per player) with Virat Kohli and Murali Vijay the only ones who've played more than 5 matches overseas. Add to that the fact that India's record in New Zealand has never been stellar. To expect these lads to arrive in New Zealand and thump what is building up to be a very good Kiwi side in their home conditions was sheer lunacy.
As the series turns towards the Test matches, the two contrasting captaincy styles will be the key point of interest for me. McCullum jumps at the first opportunity to grab the jugular (and in Southee, Boult, and Wagner he now has a good attack that lets him do so) whereas Dhoni waits and waits before going in for the kill. The selections of the teams will give a clear window into how the teams will play. My bet is that Dhoni will play safe and go in with a line-up similar to that from South Africa, ie with six batsmen and Jadeja as the lone spinner. The third seamer (alongside Zaheer and Shami) will therefore be the main decision for him and Fletcher to make and I would like to see Bhuvneshwar picked ahead of Ishant and Umesh Yadav. He'll provide more control thereby giving Dhoni the option of attacking a bit more with Zaheer and Shami. Using Rohit Sharma wisely (the way the opposition use Kane Williamson) will also be key. As always though, it'll be the batting which will decide India's fortunes and if Kohli, Pujara, Vijay and Rahane can bat the way they did against the Springboks, India will be hard to beat. Much as I'd like to see Dhoni bat at six followed by Ashwin and Jadeja, that ain't gonna happen.
New Zealand on the other hand will probably go in with just five batsmen given that Corey Anderson, and BJ Watling provide enough depth at 6 and 7. Their seam attack is also in really good form at the moment and that's what will really give them the edge going into the two matches. Ish Sodhi will probably struggle as most new spinners do in their first series against India but given the inexperience of the Indian batting and the likelihood of them being more cautious against the Kiwi seamers, it wouldn't be surprising to see Sodhi pick up a few cheap ones. In terms of the batting, Williamson and Taylor will look to carry on their splendid efforts from the ODI series and form the backbone especially given the opening pair are still somewhat unsettled (just like their Indian counterparts).
All in all, should be a fascinating ten days and despite the big gap in the rankings, I wouldn't be surprised to see NZ take the series 1-0. My only complaint is that sitting here in England, most of the action will happen while I'm sound asleep :-)
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