India have not played a five match Test series since 2002 (which they lost 1-2). They have not played a five match series against England since 1985 (which they lost 1-2 as well). The last time they played a five match series in England (in 1959) they were wiped out 0-5. This team has no one who has played a five match series and they have managed to win only one of their last 15 overseas Tests. On the face of it, this series should be a no contest.
England have lost six of their last seven Test matches. They have just been beaten in a home series by Sri Lanka for the first time in their history. Their captain can't buy a run and has started to hit back at his critics in the media. Their vice-captain and wicketkeeper has just made a shaky comeback. In the last six months their best bowler (and the best spinner in the world) has retired and they have voluntarily kicked out their best batsman of the last decade. On the face of it, this series should be a no contest.
Both sides are heavily flawed making the upcoming series intriguing and potentially a matter of who makes fewer blunders. The last time these two sides met on English soil, India came into the series as No. 1 and England were No. 1 by the end of the four Tests. Since then both sides have been battered in different ways and are now heavily in the process of rebuilding their Test teams and searching for stability in their performances. From the sides that played at the Oval in 2011, there are just eight survivors across the two teams (5 for England and 3 for India). This series will go a long way in revealing how the new generation will match up against the like of Australia and South Africa when they meet them next and whether either of them can get back up to the top of the rankings any time soon.
The main worry for Dhoni and Fletcher will be the bowling as always and putting together an attack that can take 20 wickets at a reasonable cost. Since 2011, India's bowling strike rate and averages in away Tests are by far the worst amongst the top teams. Ishant Sharma as the nominal "leader" of the attack (at least in terms of experience) epitomises the challenge. England could get rolled over for 150 or make 550 depending on which sides of the bowlers turn up for the day. And given Dhoni's clearly stated preference for playing with six batsmen, its likely that they'll be relying on a four man line-up for the most part. I've always been a fan of Dhoni's captaincy despite the stick he's received in recent times but the one sore for me has been this reluctance to play five bowlers. Its telling that Denesh Ramdin had the gumption to move himself up to #6 and play five bowlers in just his third match as captain, but Dhoni doesn't despite having two spinners who are both capable batsmen in Jadeja and Ashwin. Given how flat English pitches have become in recent times, in my view India's best chance would be to play them both (in addition to three seamers) and have Jadeja bat #6. That will not happen though so the next best thing would be to ensure Ashwin plays as first choice spinner but Dhoni will likely stick with Jadeja for the control he gives him. As for the three seamers, considering that Umesh Yadav is perplexingly absent from the squad altogether, I'd start with Shami, Bhuvneswar, and Ishant but India need to be ruthless and bring in the likes of Pankaj Singh and Varun Aaron if the first three don't start well.
England's bowling is far more settled with the main decision probably being whether they stick with Chris Jordan for a bit more or bring back Ben Stokes. Liam Plunkett has slotted back well and given they don't really have a standout spinner, they will hesitate to bring on someone new against India. The key though as always (and especially in a five match series) will be the form and fitness of Anderson and Broad. If those two hit a consistent rhythm, there is no question that an inexperienced Indian batting order will struggle. Its a big if though given recent records, and especially Anderson's tendency to lose steam in the second innings after his epic but-gusting performance at Trent Bridge in 2013. Stuart Broad (whose renaissance began in that last series in 2011 against India) is more reliable evidenced by the fact that he's the only bowler on either side in the top ten (strike rate and average) amongst bowlers with 50 or more wickets in that period. No prizes for guessing who's at the bottom of the list on both counts.
England also score over India in terms of batting experience with Cook and Bell now grizzled veterans of 100+ Tests each. Cook's under fire on all fronts but he averages nearly 10 runs more than his career average against India and the sight of Ishant Sharma in the opposition should make him smile. Bell is now England's main man and will be the primary wicket all opposition captains want. Those two aside the batting is very even on both sides. Kohli, Pujara, Rohit Sharma might induce more oohing and aahing but Root, Ballance, and Moeen Ali have had equally solid starts to their careers. India's opening pair of Dhawan and Vijay is still not quite established but neither is Sam Robson. Prior is technically better equipped than Dhoni but their Test averages are pretty similar. The likelihood of flat pitches also means that runs are not likely to be a problem for either side.
Ultimately the cricket will likely be somewhat attritional given two risk-averse captains who are leading formative teams and the side that makes fewer mistakes will prevail. England's superior experience at home makes them slight favourites in my book to win 2-1. It's going to be a fun 50 days!
The main worry for Dhoni and Fletcher will be the bowling as always and putting together an attack that can take 20 wickets at a reasonable cost. Since 2011, India's bowling strike rate and averages in away Tests are by far the worst amongst the top teams. Ishant Sharma as the nominal "leader" of the attack (at least in terms of experience) epitomises the challenge. England could get rolled over for 150 or make 550 depending on which sides of the bowlers turn up for the day. And given Dhoni's clearly stated preference for playing with six batsmen, its likely that they'll be relying on a four man line-up for the most part. I've always been a fan of Dhoni's captaincy despite the stick he's received in recent times but the one sore for me has been this reluctance to play five bowlers. Its telling that Denesh Ramdin had the gumption to move himself up to #6 and play five bowlers in just his third match as captain, but Dhoni doesn't despite having two spinners who are both capable batsmen in Jadeja and Ashwin. Given how flat English pitches have become in recent times, in my view India's best chance would be to play them both (in addition to three seamers) and have Jadeja bat #6. That will not happen though so the next best thing would be to ensure Ashwin plays as first choice spinner but Dhoni will likely stick with Jadeja for the control he gives him. As for the three seamers, considering that Umesh Yadav is perplexingly absent from the squad altogether, I'd start with Shami, Bhuvneswar, and Ishant but India need to be ruthless and bring in the likes of Pankaj Singh and Varun Aaron if the first three don't start well.
England's bowling is far more settled with the main decision probably being whether they stick with Chris Jordan for a bit more or bring back Ben Stokes. Liam Plunkett has slotted back well and given they don't really have a standout spinner, they will hesitate to bring on someone new against India. The key though as always (and especially in a five match series) will be the form and fitness of Anderson and Broad. If those two hit a consistent rhythm, there is no question that an inexperienced Indian batting order will struggle. Its a big if though given recent records, and especially Anderson's tendency to lose steam in the second innings after his epic but-gusting performance at Trent Bridge in 2013. Stuart Broad (whose renaissance began in that last series in 2011 against India) is more reliable evidenced by the fact that he's the only bowler on either side in the top ten (strike rate and average) amongst bowlers with 50 or more wickets in that period. No prizes for guessing who's at the bottom of the list on both counts.
England also score over India in terms of batting experience with Cook and Bell now grizzled veterans of 100+ Tests each. Cook's under fire on all fronts but he averages nearly 10 runs more than his career average against India and the sight of Ishant Sharma in the opposition should make him smile. Bell is now England's main man and will be the primary wicket all opposition captains want. Those two aside the batting is very even on both sides. Kohli, Pujara, Rohit Sharma might induce more oohing and aahing but Root, Ballance, and Moeen Ali have had equally solid starts to their careers. India's opening pair of Dhawan and Vijay is still not quite established but neither is Sam Robson. Prior is technically better equipped than Dhoni but their Test averages are pretty similar. The likelihood of flat pitches also means that runs are not likely to be a problem for either side.
Ultimately the cricket will likely be somewhat attritional given two risk-averse captains who are leading formative teams and the side that makes fewer mistakes will prevail. England's superior experience at home makes them slight favourites in my book to win 2-1. It's going to be a fun 50 days!
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