Mahendra Singh Dhoni does not come across as a man who lays too much store by Fate but if he did, he could be forgiven for thinking that he's just not destined to captain India to a series win outside the subcontinent any more. His fledgling team came close in both South Africa and New Zealand but could not land the final blows. In England this summer, he's gone against habit and picked five bowlers (though not always the right ones) in three of the four games so far, coaxed a matchwinning performance out of a perennially underperforming pacer, scored the most runs he's ever done in an overseas series, and taken the lead. And yet he now founds his side down 1-2 after successive thrashings and the wheels are starting to fall off everywhere.
His record as captain outside the subcontinent is still comparable to most Indian captains of the past (with the exception of Dravid whose W/L ratio is way ahead of everyone else). Dhoni is a proud man though and he will want to improve that W/L ratio as much as possible before he quits the format. As Greg Chappell points out though, the lack of a consistently potent pace attack is what has held him back mostly and led to his defensiveness and apparent lack of conviction at times. More on that another day though.
The Oval offers this young, developing India team a last chance to avoid another thrashing and put up a strong fight rather than end with a 1-3 result. The long series is (as expected) starting to take its toll on players not used to it and there was a lack of resolve from large parts of the team in Manchester (with Ashwin and Aaron who were playing their first games the notable exceptions). Picking up 20 wickets was always going to be the main challenge for India and so it has proved especially after Ishant Sharma's injury.
Of greater concern though will be the fact that their best batsmen Pujara and Kohli have struggled so much for runs. The latter has scored fewer runs than Anderson so far, leaving Rahane to hold the middle order together all by himself. England on the other hand have had Ballance, Root, and Bell all amongst the runs thereby neutralising the relative failure of their openers. India's openers have not clicked together either despite Vijay's strong series and they have now gone 32 innings since their last 50+ opening stand outside Asia. That kind of pressure tells eventually and is a big part of the three under-200 rolling overs in the last three innings. There are no easy answers but Gambhir probably deserves another go alongside Vijay now that he has been brought back into the side. Longer term, it wouldn't be the worst move to consider pushing Rahane up to open and have Rohit Sharma at #5.
The rest of the batsmen also keep their places as should Bhuvneshwar, Aaron, Ashwin, and Jadeja. That leaves one open slot for Ishant or Shami depending on the former's fitness. The Oval is the likeliest venue to be batting and spin friendly as evidenced by the fact that the last three Division 2 fixtures there have seen 4 totals above 350 and the likes of even Dilshan and Solanki pick up wickets with their part-time spin. Dhoni will need Ashwin and Jadeja to step up and not be outbowled by Moeen Ali this time.
England have a young, developing side too but their batting in particular is heading in very much the right direction. Ballance and Root have been rock solid through the summer and with Bell and Cook starting to hit form as well, the likes of Pietersen and Trott have not been missed at least against India's relatively pedestrian attack. Buttler's inclusion has given them an additional fillip and the lower order have scored useful runs too. There are still some issues, notably with Robson's failures and Moeen's "short"comings but the team's turnaround has probably won them a bit more time.
The return to form of Anderson and Broad and the impact that Moeen Ali has had will also mean that Cook has far fewer bowling worries than Dhoni does. The back-up seamers haven't convinced especially since Plunkett's departure though and it'll be interesting to see whether Cook gambles on bringing in Finn (ahead of Jordan) against a fragile Indian top order. And I've been a big fan of Chris Woakes for a few years but for this England line-up, Ben Stokes is probably a better long term bet for the allrounder position. Cook and Moores are conservative though and they will probably stick with Woakes and Jordan based on the modern logic of not changing a winning side.
All in all, we should have a fascinating finale in London, primarily because of how the momentum has shifted since the teams were last in the city. My pre-series prediction of England winning 2-1 has already come true so my betting persona is hoping for an exciting last over draw!
His record as captain outside the subcontinent is still comparable to most Indian captains of the past (with the exception of Dravid whose W/L ratio is way ahead of everyone else). Dhoni is a proud man though and he will want to improve that W/L ratio as much as possible before he quits the format. As Greg Chappell points out though, the lack of a consistently potent pace attack is what has held him back mostly and led to his defensiveness and apparent lack of conviction at times. More on that another day though.
The Oval offers this young, developing India team a last chance to avoid another thrashing and put up a strong fight rather than end with a 1-3 result. The long series is (as expected) starting to take its toll on players not used to it and there was a lack of resolve from large parts of the team in Manchester (with Ashwin and Aaron who were playing their first games the notable exceptions). Picking up 20 wickets was always going to be the main challenge for India and so it has proved especially after Ishant Sharma's injury.
Of greater concern though will be the fact that their best batsmen Pujara and Kohli have struggled so much for runs. The latter has scored fewer runs than Anderson so far, leaving Rahane to hold the middle order together all by himself. England on the other hand have had Ballance, Root, and Bell all amongst the runs thereby neutralising the relative failure of their openers. India's openers have not clicked together either despite Vijay's strong series and they have now gone 32 innings since their last 50+ opening stand outside Asia. That kind of pressure tells eventually and is a big part of the three under-200 rolling overs in the last three innings. There are no easy answers but Gambhir probably deserves another go alongside Vijay now that he has been brought back into the side. Longer term, it wouldn't be the worst move to consider pushing Rahane up to open and have Rohit Sharma at #5.
The rest of the batsmen also keep their places as should Bhuvneshwar, Aaron, Ashwin, and Jadeja. That leaves one open slot for Ishant or Shami depending on the former's fitness. The Oval is the likeliest venue to be batting and spin friendly as evidenced by the fact that the last three Division 2 fixtures there have seen 4 totals above 350 and the likes of even Dilshan and Solanki pick up wickets with their part-time spin. Dhoni will need Ashwin and Jadeja to step up and not be outbowled by Moeen Ali this time.
England have a young, developing side too but their batting in particular is heading in very much the right direction. Ballance and Root have been rock solid through the summer and with Bell and Cook starting to hit form as well, the likes of Pietersen and Trott have not been missed at least against India's relatively pedestrian attack. Buttler's inclusion has given them an additional fillip and the lower order have scored useful runs too. There are still some issues, notably with Robson's failures and Moeen's "short"comings but the team's turnaround has probably won them a bit more time.
The return to form of Anderson and Broad and the impact that Moeen Ali has had will also mean that Cook has far fewer bowling worries than Dhoni does. The back-up seamers haven't convinced especially since Plunkett's departure though and it'll be interesting to see whether Cook gambles on bringing in Finn (ahead of Jordan) against a fragile Indian top order. And I've been a big fan of Chris Woakes for a few years but for this England line-up, Ben Stokes is probably a better long term bet for the allrounder position. Cook and Moores are conservative though and they will probably stick with Woakes and Jordan based on the modern logic of not changing a winning side.
All in all, we should have a fascinating finale in London, primarily because of how the momentum has shifted since the teams were last in the city. My pre-series prediction of England winning 2-1 has already come true so my betting persona is hoping for an exciting last over draw!
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