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A familiar tale but with a twist

Three years ago, India came to Adelaide down 0-3 in the series, a team already beaten and demoralised. They were without Dhoni but had the experience of Tendulkar, Dravid, Laxman, Sehwag, Zaheer, and Gambhir to fall back on. The result though was yet another beating to complete the ignominious 0-8. The lone shining light was the chutzpah displayed by a young 23 year old who made his first overseas Test hundred.

Fast forward to 2014, and India were again coming in to Adelaide having lost their last three overseas matches badly. Dhoni was missing again, the big three had all retired, and Sehwag, Zaheer, and Gambhir had drifted out of contention. The 23 year old from 2011 now had five more Test hundreds and 13 more ODI hundreds under his belt and was the stand-in captain. The end result was another defeat but different in a few ways. The bowlers struggled but kept putting in bursts of aggression. The slip catching had improved and the fielding was more athletic in general. And the batsmen, though inexperienced showed a willingness to fight that had gone missing in 2011/12 and earlier this year in England. Kohli also had the guts to blood a rookie leg-spinner and the gumption to admit afterwards that it hadn't worked out. Most importantly, he put the demons from England thoroughly to rest with an absolute command batting performance.

All of which should give India hope going into the Gabba and the rest of the series that they can compete. Whether that actually transpires or not remains to be seen. With the return of Dhoni and the likely return of Ashwin, the style of cricket will probably switch back to a slightly more guarded and pragmatic one. The bowling can only get better compared to Adelaide where Nathan Lyon picked up as many wickets as the entire Indian attack. The lower middle order (a weak point in Adelaide) will also certainly get beefed up with Dhoni and Ashwin swapping in for Saha and Karn Sharma. The key though as always for India will be whether the top 6 can put up strong totals to give their weaker bowlers the cushion they require. Dhawan and Rohit Sharma will be under special scrutiny. The team in Adelaide had too many passengers and that is something touring sides down under can ill afford.

Australia too had their share of passengers but they have had to contend with a lot in recent times and so it was not as much of a surprise. Their trials and tribulations made their win in Adelaide all the more commendable. Some of those closest to Phil Hughes had a huge role to play though in the case of Clarke that might have come at great cost. They will miss their premier batsman in the long form but as Warner and Smith have shown in recent times, they're quite capable of filling the gap. Smith will be called upon to full the leadership gap as well and I'm personally very pleased having called him out as a future star early this year. The rest of the batting is somewhat shakier for reasons ranging from age (Rogers, Haddin), to ability (Shaun Marsh), and form (Watson).

The bowling troops have changes too but being able to bring in Hazlewood and Starc doesn't really feel like a challenge. The Indians may feel a bit relieved given their troubles against Harris and Siddle three years back but the relief might be shortlived if the two younger men maintain their current form. It does mean a little more pressure on Mitchell Johnson as the senior man but given that left arm pacemen have historically done well against India, he will be confident. As will Nathan Lyon after his best ever haul, one which will hopefully earn him the respect his record deserves. Amongst Aussie spinners who have taken more than 100 wickets, he has the fourth best strike rate ever, better than Grimmett, O'Reilly, and Benaud. Not bad for someone who started as a groundsman. And while the Gabba is probably the least spin friendly of the venues for the series, Lyon will be encouraged by the success that Moeen Ali had recently against this line-up when he benefited from the pressure applied by England's seamers.

Ultimately though, both teams will be looking for long term gains. In the absence of Clarke, there isn't a single player on either side who's got more than 100 caps and the cumulative Test match experience of the two sides is probably the lowest since they played each other in 1986. Australia will still back themselves given their home record (especially at the Gabba). A 3-0 result still appears likely but if Dhoni and his men prove me wrong over the next three weeks, no one will be more pleased.

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