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India vs. Australia: bullet point preview

The last leg of India's marathon home Test season kicks off in a couple of days, with Kohli and his men a good chance of going into fourth place on the list of consecutive matches without defeat. But while it is tempting to write off Steven Smith's team (like many are doing), the current 8-0 scoreline for the season masks how hard the Indians have had to fight at times. Expect no less from the Australians. Notwithstanding the fact that they got clobbered in Sri Lanka and have lost their last 9 matches in Asia (and 8 out of their last 10 in India), they will fight hard. And Kumble clearly realises this, one of the many reasons why he's the best choice for the Indian team in its current stage of evolution.

My India vs. England preview wasn't the most accurate as pre-series callouts, and especially in terms of the best players (Broad and Rahane were mostly injured!!). Here's hoping this one works out better. Thoughts on the factors/players that will make the difference -

  • The venues and the fact that three of the four are new to Test match cricket might favour the visitors slightly, if only to make the balance even in terms of the unknown and especially how the wickets might play. That said, England also had two new venues (for the first two matches of the series) but couldn't capitalise. Interesting aside: the venue most likely to be seamer friendly (Dharamsala) hosts the fourth Test by which time the series might be gone for Australia.
  • Sounds like a cliche, but selection and tactics are paramount in India and visiting teams don't always grasp that. Under Kohli, India have made a concerted effort to always play the best XI for the situation and conditions. That has meant that over this 19 match unbeaten streak, they have not played the same XI more than once. The focus has not been on individuals but what can be done to get 20 wickets, score the necessary runs and win matches. Steven Smith will need to be similarly flexible and even ruthless (from a personnel management standpoint). It looks likely that Australia will play 5 batsmen plus Mitchell Marsh and Wade as all-rounders and four bowlers in Pune. If that formula doesn't work though they need to be bold enough to take risks like dropping Wade and playing Handscomb as the keeper, or bring in Maxwell or Agar for Marsh.
  • Ashwin and Jadeja as always will be the key for India. Their home record bowling together is of course astonishing, but the runs they have contributed in the last couple of years have been equally critical in India's victories. They've effectively (alongside Saha) made up for the lack of a true all-rounder (as I had half-wishfully written many years ago). India will need their output as all-rounders to continue. Australia will need their nos. 6-8 (the likes of Marsh, Wade, and O'Keefe/Starc) to match up at least in terms of runs.
  • Similarly, Starc and Hazlewood will be the biggest challenge (bowling wise) that India have faced this season. They are approaching their peak as quick bowlers, strike at under 55, bowl really well together and now have the benefit of having played 25 plus matches. Keeping them fit and firing will be key for the visitors.
  • To round off the deadly duos, Australia have two truly gun batsmen in Smith and Warner (even though the latter is yet to truly prove his credentials away from home and South Africa). If they get on song early in the series, then the rest of the team will likely get inspired and make India's challenge much tougher. Warner's duel with Ashwin and Jadeja in particular looks key. New Zealand and England had only one such batsman each and well though Williamson and Root played, they lacked for enough support, especially the former.
  • Australia's top seven will likely have at least four left-handers and that tribe has struggled against the Indian spin duo recently. Can they turn it around? Especially if Jayant Yadav plays as the third spinner in some of the matches.
  • Slip catching will be super critical. It has been the one blip on India's performance this season and they've been lucky it hasn't come back to bite them badly so far. So far. A repeat against Australia will have far greater consequences. Australia too will need to be aware that there will be more slip catches to be had off the spinners and will want to back up Lyon and O'Keefe as perfectly as possible.
Finally, it wouldn't be a preview without some predictions. So here goes. I think India will win 3-0 and anything worse than 2-0 would be a poor result for them. Players of the series for each team -

India: Rahane (batting), Jadeja (bowling)
Australia: Smith (batting). Hazlewood (bowling)

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